Economy
Our research notes on economy, written for private clients and investors in Geneva and across Switzerland.

The Trade Tariffs Are Illegal: What Happens Next?
February 25, 2026In a 6-3 ruling, SCOTUS struck down U.S. trade tariffs as unconstitutional. While the administration announced 15% replacement tariffs, these cannot r

The U.S. Government Shutdown(s)
October 9, 2025U.S. government shutdowns are political stints with no long-term consequences on the economy, the dollar, or U.S. treasuries. Investors should treat t

What will Happen to U.S. Trade Tariffs?
October 2, 2025We believe the SCOTUS will rule Trump's tariffs illegal under the IEEPA. Tariffs will ultimately be limited to those legally permitted under Section 2

Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Unsustainable?
September 8, 2025The U.S. trade deficit is the consequence of the U.S. being the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. As long as the American economy remains s

U.S. Trade Tariffs
April 2, 2025The 90-day moratorium on tariffs does not remove a base 10% tariff for all goods. We expect the moratorium to be extended to fall, and the tariff situ

The 3 lessons that companies must learn from the defeat of Kamala Harris and the Democrats in the 2024 US elections
November 6, 2024The outcome of the 2024 US elections carries three timeless lessons for any business — on listening to clients, communicating clearly, and never takin
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